MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0341
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 PM CDT MON APR 12 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO SWRN GA...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 121833Z - 122030Z
   
   WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   WITHIN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  STORM DEVELOPMENT
   WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PERSISTING OVER NWRN AL WITH
   SLOW-MOVING / NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO NEAR MOB. 
   DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ALLOWING
   MARGINAL TO MODERATE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION... PARTICULARLY OVER
   THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE GREATER GULF MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO RETURN
   NWD.
   
   ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR...MODELS SUGGEST THAT AL LOW SHOULD INTENSIFY / SHIFT SWD
   THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING AS MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND
   ASSOCIATED E TX VORT MAX APPROACH.  WITH WINDS ACROSS WARM SECTOR
   BECOMING MORE SLY IN RESPONSE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   SHOULD ALLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE 20 TO 21Z TIME FRAME --
   ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING.
   
   WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST ABOVE BACKING LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE
   OF SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS WITH TIME.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR AS WELL --
   PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN AL / THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WHERE GREATEST
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/12/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   31468722 33118685 33008526 32298463 30988441 30398440
   29858471 29648526 30108563 30418672 30328779