MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0356
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 PM CDT SAT APR 17 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN INDIANA AND NRN OHIO
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 
   
   VALID 172019Z - 172215Z
   
   WATCH NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS AREA.
   
   SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF N CENTRAL
   INTO NWRN OHIO AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SWD/SEWD
   ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWS ONE STORM DEVELOPING OVER SANDUSKY
   COUNTY IN VICINITY OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY INDICATED BY MODERATE
   GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY. AIR MASS FROM N CENTRAL PARTS OF INDIANA
   ENEWD INTO N CENTRAL OHIO HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
   SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000
   AND 3000 J/KG. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AS RUC MODEL
   SOUNDING INDICATES A LAPSE RATE OF 3C/KM BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3.O KM. 
   ABOVE THIS LAYER HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8C/KM. 
   THUS...ONCE CLOUD LAYER GETS ABOVE THIS LEVEL...PARCELS SHOULD BE
   ABLE TO ACCELERATE.  MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT SHOULD BE IN THE
   VICINITY/JUST S OF THE FRONT/LAKE BREEZE INTERSECTION THEN WSWWD
   INTO INDIANA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE
   WITH THE ACTIVITY.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 04/17/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...
   
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