MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0510
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW/SCNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 131...
   
   VALID 300716Z - 300815Z
   
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST EVENINGS TSTMS HAS STALLED FROM THE NRN
   PART OF THE DFW METROPLEX WNW INTO THE S PLAINS OF W TX.  50-55 KT
   SSWLY LLJ IS IMPINGING ON THIS BOUNDARY FROM UNSTABLE RESERVOIR OF
   NEAR 2500 J/KG MUCAPE OVER CNTRL TX.  TSTMS CONTINUE TO REGENERATE
   ALONG NOSE OF THE LLJ OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO SWRN/CNTRL OK. 
   RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THE LINE SEGMENT FROM
   KOKC-KLTS.  THIS LINE SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE RED RVR THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   GIVEN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGIME AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR-
   CORNERS AREA AND LLJ CONTINUING TO BE ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE
   OUTFLOW...TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF
   WRN/CNTRL/SRN OK THROUGH DAYBREAK.  EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
   SOMEWHAT WEAK TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. BUT...ISOLD LARGE
   HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY.
   
   AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE AFFECTED WFOS...A WW DECISION WILL BE
   MADE BY 08 UTC.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/30/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
   
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