MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0511
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1059 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR/ERN MO INTO IL/WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 301559Z - 301800Z
   
   AREA IS BEING MONITORED.  WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT
   COULD BECOME NECESSARY.
   
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
   ...LIFTING ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ACTIVITY IS
   INTENSIFYING...AND A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF SEPARATE CLUSTERS INTO
   ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY
   AFTERNOON.  WHILE UPDRAFTS STILL APPEAR BASED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE
   INVERSION LAYER...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG/ AHEAD OF CONVECTION
   WARM INTO THE MID 70S...CONVECTION LIKELY WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED
   AS IT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  AS THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL
   FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN 25 TO 35 KT MEAN FLOW
   ENVIRONMENT WILL INCREASE...WHILE STRONGEST CELLS CONTINUE TO
   PRODUCE HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/30/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...
   
   39499181 40169104 40758964 40458815 39628803 38008794
   36908802 36118872 35488976 35209122 35299225 35999196
   36969143 38309135