MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX PANHANDLE...ERN/SERN NM...WRN/SWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 081953Z - 082230Z
   
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20-23Z ALONG
   AN AXIS FROM 20SE DHT TO 40W INK. STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN
   LARGE HAIL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS.
   ISOLATED NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   AT 1930Z...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER
   80S ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
   THE 50S. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS
   THE REGION THROUGH SUNSET. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NOT ANY WELL-DEFINED
   SURFACE BOUNDARIES... DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND WEAK
   CONFLUENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A SSWWD EXTENSION OF TOWERING CU
   BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN DHT AND AMA. THE UPPER LOW EVIDENT ON
   WV IMAGERY ACROSS SRN TX IS ENHANCING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS WRN
   TX /0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KT/ ...WHICH MAY AID IN A FEW LONGER-LIVED
   STORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
   WEST OF UPPER LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY LIMIT EXTENT/COVERAGE OF STORMS
   OVER THE REGION.
   
   VERY STEEP SURFACE TO 500MB LAPSE RATES / 8-9 C/KM / AND MODEST WBZ
   HEIGHTS OF 8-9 KFT SUGGEST LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH STRONGER CORES.
   SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REACHING 30-35F AROUND PEAK HEATING
   SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF EPISODES OF DAMAGING WINDS
   ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN
   COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 05/08/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   35410326 36000222 35840153 33660177 30410299 30420452
   32000461 34020396