MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0717
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1022 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NORTHERN IND...NORTHEAST IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 171522Z - 171745Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST
   IL/NORTHERN IND INTO WESTERN LOWER MI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WW
   MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
   SOUTHERN LOWER MI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY INTO THE
   LOWER 70S.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO INCREASING INTO THE LOWER
   60S...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
   1000-1500 J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS
   ZONE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WI/IL
   SHIFTS EASTWARD.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST
   IL/NORTHERN IND/WESTERN LOWER MI SHOW RATHER STRONG WIND FIELDS
   /0-6KM SHEAR OVER 40 KNOTS AND CONSIDERABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT/
   FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...WITH
   AN EVOLUTION TOWARD SMALL BOWS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..HART.. 05/17/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   42238730 43428611 44478517 44508449 42998357 41298459
   40318558 40168622 40188744 40418870 41328836 41758810