MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS/FAR SE NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 172008Z - 172245Z
   
   TSTMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP/BECOME SEVERE ACROSS NE KS/FAR SE
   NEB INTO CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY LIKELY IN THE 22Z-00Z
   TIMEFRAME. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. 
   
   MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE INVOF SFC FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY IN CNTRL/NCNTRL KS NEWD INTO NE KS/FAR SE NEB...WHERE FRONT
   INTERCEPTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS -- CHARACTERIZED BY 60-65F SFC
   DEWPOINTS. 19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   CONTINUALLY WEAKENING SFC BASED INHIBITION IN THIS
   CORRIDOR...COINCIDENT WITH AGITATED CU FIELD PER LATEST VIS
   SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH TIME...TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SWWD INTO
   INITIALLY GREATER CINH/NEAR TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SW KS.
   
   MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40
   KTS...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/LENGTH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/17/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   37000118 37020153 37740167 38890150 39779938 40629764
   41359613 38849552 37759738 37099921