MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND SWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 202043Z - 202215Z
   
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD THROUGH
   WRN CHAVES COUNTY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH THE THREAT FOR
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
   DAVIS/GUADALUPE MTNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND POSE A THREAT
   FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS
   MARGINAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
   MONITOR FOR A WW.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING CIN/DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
   OVER THE DAVIS/GUADALUPE MTNS. INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS UNDER
   STRONGLY DIFFLUENT JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING ESELY UPSLOPE WINDS
   INTO THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD AID IN SLOW EWD STORM
   MOTIONS FROM 10-15 KTS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM
   1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT...GIVEN THE 30-35 KTS OF DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR...TO GIVE A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ADDITIONAL HIGH
   TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS SHOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SELY LOW
   LEVEL JET INCREASING THIS EVENING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET
   INCREASING INHIBITION TO PERSIST A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH 02Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   30500416 31320481 31920506 33380523 33860472 33880372
   33710342 32990306 31940298 30790308 30440329