MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NY...ERN PA..NRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271...274...
   
   VALID 241900Z - 242030Z
   
   WE MAY REPLACE WW 271 AND 274 WITH A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   ACROSS THE AREA BY 20Z.
   
   RADAR SHOWS INCREASE COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS A SMALL PART OF N
   CENTRAL NY STATE AND CENTRAL PA.  ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID
   LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE MOVING THRU WRN NY AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL JET
   STREAK OF 60-70 KT ACROSS SWRN PA.  AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG. 
   LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOWS MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS CENTRAL
   PA WITH 50 KT ABOVE 600 MB.  STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
   HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 05/24/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   40317403 40307469 40377600 40687682 41597651 42647643
   43207649 43667599 43707490 42717394 41737386 40507391