MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0916
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/SRN IL AND FAR WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 294...
   
   VALID 262032Z - 262200Z
   
   CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW.
   
   AS OF 20Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED THAT COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY/SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDED FROM S OF PAH WNWWD TO N OF SGF.
   AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH 16Z SGF
   SOUNDING INDICATED RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIRMASS...SWLY WINDS IN THE
   1-3KM LAYER ARE LIKELY ADVECTING WARMER AIRMASS OBSERVED ON THE 18Z
   LMN SOUNDING INTO THE REGION. THUS...CAP MAY BE STRENGTHENING TO
   SOME DEGREE AT LEAST OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. FARTHER
   E...TCU/SMALL CBS OVER TEXAS/DENT COUNTIES SUGGESTS THAT CAP IS
   SLIGHTLY WEAKER.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE AN UPSTREAM
    70-75KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER SWRN INTO S-CNTRL KS. FORCING FOR
   ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY OFFSET PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOWER
   TROPOSPHERIC WARMING...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT SGF VWP INDICATES SHEAR PROFILES
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
   TWO ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
   INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH PRE-EXISTING SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
   
   FARTHER E...SUPERCELL OVER CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY IS MOVING ESEWD
   ALONG COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM KY MCS. THOUGH
   PAH REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY IS MOVING S...AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE STORM BECOMING
   ELEVATED ABOVE REMNANT COLD POOL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/26/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
   
   38439353 38438776 36438891 36469454