MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1056
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0140 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH SE CO...NERN NM AND THE WRN OK AND
   TX PANHANDLES
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 021840Z - 022115Z
   
   HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND
   NM EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.
   HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP
   FARTHER EWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WW
   MIGHT BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z. 
   
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HIGH BASED CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED DEVELOPING
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM INTO S CNTRL CO. THE GRADIENT
   BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND A THERMAL LOW
   OVER THE SW U.S. HAS ESTABLISHED A LOW LEVEL ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT
   ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
   WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWWD THROUGH SWRN KS INTO THE OK
   PANHANDLE. S OF THIS BOUNDARY AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING WWD. THIS IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF
   MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG FROM SERN CO THROUGH NERN NM INTO THE
   TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERCEPT THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
   LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
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