MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1168
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 
   
   VALID 100658Z - 100830Z
   
   THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX
    OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A WEATHER WATCH SHOULD NOT BE
   NECESSARY...UNLESS AN UPSWING IN TSTM COVERAGE IS NOTED.
   
   VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MAIN PART OF THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL
   TROUGH IS SHIFTING NEWD INTO SCNTRL TX ATTM.  THERE WAS A BRIEF LULL
   IN CONVECTION IN WAKE OF THE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
   NERN TX.  SINCE 06 UTC...HOWEVER...TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER ERN
   PARTS OF CNTRL TX BETWEEN COLLEGE STATION AND KILLEEN AHEAD OF THE
   UPSTREAM IMPULSE.  
   
   THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEW
   POINTS IN THE MID 70S. STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS SITUATED FROM
   THE MIDDLE TX COAST NWWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY...SO AS TSTMS MOVE
   NWD INTO NCNTRL TX THEY MAY TEND TO DIMINISH.  HOWEVER... THERE
   SEEMS TO BE A TREND FOR TSTMS TO INTENSIFY WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND
   NEAR BRENHAM AND FAYETTE (K11R/K3T5) WITH STORMS MOVING NWD. 
   
   RUC2 PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
   30-35 KTS WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2 AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY 
   AREA VWPS.  THUS...ANY TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO. 
   GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY AUSTIN TO WACO
   EWD TO HUNTSVILLE AND BRENHAM. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONGER INSTABILITY
   AXIS FARTHER SOUTH AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE DISTURBANCE STILL TO
   PASS THROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT TSTMS FORMING FARTHER SOUTH IN AREAS
   EAST OF SAN ANTONIO TO NEAR HOUSTON.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/10/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
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