MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1366
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1243 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL UPPER MI / NRN AND WRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 211743Z - 211915Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE
   FRONT FROM WRN UPPER MI SWWD INTO W CENTRAL WI.  DESPITE LOCAL
   THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LIMITED HEATING OCCURRING ALONG
   SURFACE FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE KEWEENAW
   PENINSULA TO N OF LSE /LA CROSSE WI/.  SHOWERS / A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ATTM...ALTHOUGH MEAN-LAYER CAPE
   LESS THAN 500 J/KG HAS RESULTED IN LIMITED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE /
   INTENSITY.
   
   WITH CLOUDS / SHOWERS EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO THE WRN AND
   CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MI ATTM...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF
   AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED.  HOWEVER...WITH 40 TO 50 KT
   MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...WIND FIELD IS SUPPORTIVE OF
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  SOME INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION
   SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH AN
   ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / HAIL.  WE WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS
   REGION...AS FURTHER INSTABILITY WITHIN FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
   WOULD RESULT IN A GREATER SEVERE THREAT THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/21/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
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