MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1414
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0705 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN KS AND NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 250005Z - 250130Z
   
   ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY MOVE ESEWD
   AROUND 30 KTS. LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED
   FOR A WW.
   
   RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER JET ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
   CONVERGENCE IN THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EWD FROM NCENTRAL
   INTO NRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AROUND
   1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE EXIST OVER THE AREA. 25-30 KTS OF CLOUD
   LAYER SHEAR PER REGIONAL PROFILER DATA AND 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME STORM ROTATION WITH AN
   ATTENDANT MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
   
   39919761 39409933 38959866 38969757 38989659 38919545
   38919394 38899236 39299146 39919154 40139209 39939585