MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1472
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR AND SWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 022215Z - 022345Z
   
   A WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK...WRN AR AND PERHAPS
   SWRN MO THIS EVENING.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
   RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF THE MCS.  TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
   AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION.  INSTABILITY AXIS
   RUNS NW-SE ACROSS THE OK-AR BORDER NWD INTO SWRN MO WITH MLCAPES
   RANGING FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG ACROSS NCNTRL AR/SCNTRL MO TO OVER
   3000 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL OK.
   
   VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS A CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TCU ALONG TWO
   ZONES. ONE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SERN KS/SWRN MO AND THE
   OTHER FROM THE TULSA AREA TOWARD EXTREME NWRN AR.  21Z RUC40
   SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL EITHER INITIATE ALONG THE LATTER
   ZONE...OR BACKBUILD SWWD FROM THE SERN KS TSTMS INTO NERN OK THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND LOCATION ALONG
   SRN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
   FOR RAPIDLY BUILDING TSTMS THIS EVENING.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR IS GREATER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE REGION...
   WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF 35-40 KTS.  ADDITIONALLY...DESPITE VEERED LOW
   LEVEL FLOW...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES ARE OVER 20 KTS.  THUS...IN ADDITION
   TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
   TORNADO OR TWO IN LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT IF TSTMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. 
   
   
   ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND MOVE SSEWD ACROSS ERN OK
   AND NRN/WRN AR LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
   WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/02/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...
   
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