MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1651
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0555 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL AZ/SWRN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 132255Z - 140100Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE TAKEN SOME TIME IN DEVELOPING THIS
   AFTN...BUT RECENT SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSIFYING STORMS
   ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ.
   MODIFYING THE 18Z OBSERVED TUCSON SOUNDING WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS
   OF 100/61 YIELDS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG. TEMP/DEWPOINT
   SPREADS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 35-45 DEGREES COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
   RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM...SO STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A
   FEW STORMS. IN ADDITION...MIDLEVEL ELY FLOW OF AROUND 20 KT ALSO
   NOTED ON SOUNDING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MIXING
   DOWN TO THE SFC COMBINED WITH ACCELERATION OF DOWNBURST WINDS. 18Z
   AND OBSERVED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
   ARE AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES IN SOME CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN AZ.
   THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS.
   
   
   HIGHER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 MAY HELP STORMS MOVE INTO THE LOWER
   ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO...SO A WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/13/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
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