MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1714
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 162229Z - 170000Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH
   DEVELOPING STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A COUPLE OF CONFLUENCE ZONES
   BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE AREA...ONE FROM NEAR P24 INTO
   S-CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER FROM NW OF MBG TO NEAR SDY. A
   STORM HAS RECENTLY INITIATED ON THE FORMER OVER MOUNTRAIL COUNTY  IN
   NWRN ND. TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   DIVING SEWD THROUGH SRN SASKATCHEWAN ENHANCES MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG
   THESE SURFACE FEATURES.
   
   RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. IF STORMS CAN BECOME
   SUSTAINED...PRESENCE OF 40-50KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.
   
   LOCAL PROXIMITY OF LARGER-SCALE RIDGE AXIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE...SUGGESTING THAT STORMS MAY REMAIN
   ISOLATED OR NOT ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
   SHEAR/INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...HOWEVER.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/16/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   49000404 49020100 45899984 45920291