MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1761
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO ONTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 221729Z - 221930Z
   
   THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A
   WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   DENVER RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT A NELY COLD SURGE IS
   MOVING SWWD THROUGH THE URBAN CORRIDOR ATTM.  VWP SHOWS UPSLOPE
   ENELY FLOW IS UP THROUGH 1 KM AT CHEYENNE AND DENVER.  BOUNDARY
   LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING WWD BENEATH NEARLY 8 DEGREES C/KM MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND IS MAKING FOR AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. TSTMS HAVE
   ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF BOULDER AND DENVER AND
   SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PLUGGING IN A PARCEL WITH
   77/55 YIELDS A SBCAPE OF 1100 J/KG WITHIN A VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE
   OF AROUND 50 KTS.  THUS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THE SPC
   EXPERIMENTAL HAIL ALGORITHMS SUGGEST HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
   DOLLARS/PING PONG BALLS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  
   
   FARTHER EAST...CINH IS A LITTLE STRONGER...BUT GIVEN A COUPLE MORE
   HOURS OF HEATING...TSTMS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ONTO THE PLAINS
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/22/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOU...
   
   39240543 40480548 40990425 40880314 39070320