MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1787
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 272229Z - 280030Z
   
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
   THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH STORMS NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS S
   CENTRAL ND.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE SEVERE
   STORM THREAT.
   
   SEVERAL STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NW SD
   INTO S CENTRAL ND DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  MANY OF THESE
   STORMS HAVE SINCE COLLAPSED WHILE BEING UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY
   PERSIST LONGER IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ORIENTED NE-SW THROUGH THE BIS
   AREA WHERE EXISTING CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO A REGION OF
   MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG...AIDED BY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG A SURFACE
   COLD FRONT.  SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND A NEAR-SURFACE FEED
   OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE NE MAY ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP NEWD
   ACROSS THE BIS AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
   LARGE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 07/27/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   46200057 46300089 46550111 46770100 47529975 47619927
   47409905 47069929 46669992 46300023