MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1883
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID AND WRN/CENTRAL MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 042003Z - 042200Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   W-CENTRAL/WRN MT. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   
   AT 1950Z...CU CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
   CENTRAL AND WRN MT AND NRN ID. HEATING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN SHOULD
   LEAD TO ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
   SFC-6KM SHEAR IS STRONG /40-50KT/ BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
   ACROSS ERN MT AND TROUGH ACROSS NWRN PACIFIC. THESE WIND FIELDS
   POTENTIALLY SUPPORTS A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.
   
   LOW-LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
   FROM ERN MT NWWD TO HVR. DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS
   W-CENTRAL/WRN MT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
   GRADIENT ARE WEAK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING FROM HIGHER
   TERRAIN WILL TRACK ENEWD AT 25-30 KT ACROSS WRN INTO N-CENTRAL MT BY
   EVENING. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
   FEW SEVERE CELLS WITH LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES /
   700-500MB OF 8-8.5 C/KM / SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND
   STRONG MID-LEVEL WSWLY WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...OTX...
   
   45721427 45861510 48061651 48881642 48930867 47720791
   47080797 46051070 45851244