MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0255 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM EWD INTO WCENTRAL/NWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 151955Z - 152230Z
   
   AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM PORTIONS OF SWRN NM EWD
   INTO NWRN TX ALONG DEEP LAYER CONFLUENT AXIS AND MODERATE-HIGH
   MOISTURE VALUES. RAINFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN TX.
   
   UPPER VORT CENTERS OVER SWRN NM AND SWRN TX WILL CONTINUED TO
   PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ENCOUNTERING UPPER RIDGE
   AXIS OVER ERN NM. CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDES OF THESE FEATURES
   SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY. UPPER TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SERN CO AND A
   VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DYING CONVECTION OVER OK WILL AID IN
   STRENGTHENING A DEEP LAYER OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE
   REGION FROM WCENTRAL INTO NWRN TX AS EVIDENT BY REGIONAL
   VWP/PROFILER DATA. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY MOIST MID
   LEVELS WITH PW/S FROM 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH
   MODERATE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
   THEREFORE...WITH EXPECTED EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION...FOCUSED E-W
   ORIENTED REGION OF DEEP CONVERGENCE AND FORECAST VERY SLOW STORM
   MOTIONS WILL ALL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   33930614 33930799 33230844 32630793 32120676 31990590
   32040450 32230286 32410203 32759965 33489924 33899951
   34200052 34080142 34020415