MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN U.P. OF MI/ERN-SRN WI/NERN IA AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 758...
VALID 182046Z - 182145Z
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE U.P. OF MI AND MUCH OF ERN WI...AS A
FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE TRACKS EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS.
AT 2030Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR SSWWD ACROSS NERN TO SWRN WI...AND MOVING EWD AT 35-45
KT. DESPITE A CONTINUED WEAK AND NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...THE STRENGTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS/
DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
WEAKER INSTABILITY LOCATED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER
MI IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE SQUALL LINE
REACHES THIS AREA TOWARD 22Z. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z
RUC WHICH SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK INTO THE EVENING.
WW MAY...HOWEVER...BE NECESSARY IF THE SQUALL LINE SHOWS SIGNS OF
REMAINING STRONG...DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY.
..PETERS.. 08/18/2004
ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...DMX...
44538938 45408850 46958770 46878443 45058428 43268624
42748841 42729308 43319273 43629088
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