MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1013 PM CDT WED AUG 25 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 787...
   
   VALID 260313Z - 260515Z
   
   ...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY NRN PORTIONS OF
   WATCH...
   
   UPPER WAVE NOW OVER WRN ND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS
   EVENING...SUPPORTING STORMS ALREADY IN PROGRESS. WITH THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING. A NEW WATCH
   DOWNSTREAM IS NOT EXPECTED. LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM GRAND FORKS
   HAS A CURVED HODOGRAPH AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ERN CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING INTO
   THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT
   SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO
   MN. 
   
   STORM WHICH PRODUCED A TORNADO IN WARD CO HAS MORE POTENTIAL FOR A
   LONGER TERM THREAT. STORMS WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING
   LINE MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE GIVEN ACCESS TO STRONGER
   INSTABILITY.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 08/26/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   46009637 48479906 48470286 45989992