MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2145
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NY...VT...NH...WRN MA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795...
   
   VALID 291946Z - 292145Z
   
   NUMEROUS STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
   WESTERN SECTIONS OF WATCH 795 AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE LONGER-LIVED
   SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED SINCE WATCH ISSUANCE...ONE CELL CROSSED
   THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN NH...THE OTHER ISOLD CELL DEVELOPED OVER
   ONEIDA COUNTY NY AND WAS NOW WEAKENING ACROSS HAMILTON COUNTY.
   BROKEN BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN A SW-NE AXIS JUST
   AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WRN/NRN NY. ADDITIONAL INTENSE
   CELLS...OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WERE
   NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NERN NY AND
   NWRN VT. AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY
   UNSTABLE BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING INTO THE CORE OF WARM SECTOR WILL
   REMAIN RATHER WEAK. EXPECT A FEW MORE WIND/HAIL EVENTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS NERN/ERN NY AND VT BEFORE OVERALL
   WEAKENING TREND SETS IN.
   
   LACK OF FORCING ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...FROM SRN
   TIER OF NY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO WRN MA...SUGGEST SEVERE
   STORM POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 08/29/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
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