MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2149
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1107 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN VA...NERN NC...SRN MD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 301607Z - 301800Z
   
   CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER SRN VA IN ADVANCE OF TD
   GASTON.  1630Z OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK...AND AREA
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH CG LIGHTNING DEVELOPING
   OVER SRN VA TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TD
   GASTON...WITHIN BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING
   FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA. STRONGER DIURNAL
   HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE DENSE CLOUDS
   ATTENDING THE CIRCULATION CENTER...RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL
   DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG.  LATEST VAD WIND
   PROFILE FROM AKQ SHOW STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3-4 KM AGL THAT
   VEER WITH HEIGHT...PROVIDING A VERTICAL SHEAR/HELICITY SUPPORTIVE OF
   SMALL SUPERCELLS.  CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO
   THE AFTERNOON HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWD INTO NERN NC...WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES TO DEVELOP.
   
   ..WEISS.. 08/30/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RNK...
   
   35567681 36347696 36727767 36727826 37187862 37847835
   38437769 38417639 37557594 36557576 35817551 35367630