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Mesoscale Discussion 2218
MD 2218 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2218
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0809 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...SWRN GA AND FL PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 825...
   
   VALID 160109Z - 160315Z
   
   THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
   SPREAD FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SRN AL AND SWRN GA.  
   
   01Z MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS THE CENTER OF HRCN IVAN ABOUT 90NM SOUTH OF
   KMOB.  AN OLD FRONT EXTENDED ROUGHLY E-W FROM SCNTRL AL EWD ACROSS
   SRN GA TO COASTAL SC.  
   
   EARLIER THIS EVENING...TSTMS DEVELOPED VCNTY THE FRONT OVER SWRN GA.
    THESE CELLS QUICKLY BECAME TORNADIC WHERE AIR MASS HEATED THIS
   AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND APPEAR TO
   HAVE LARGELY BEEN TIED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND HAVE WEAKENED.
   
   HOWEVER...A WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BAND CONTAINING EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS ARCS FROM SCNTRL AL TO THE CNTRL FL PNHDL THEN SWD INTO
   THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.  CELLS ARE MOVING 150/50 AND LATEST VWP FROM
   PENSACOLA SUGGESTS 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 350 M2/S2.  
   
   AS THE CENTER OF IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AL COASTLINE...
   THE TORNADO THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD FARTHER
   INLAND ACROSS SRN AL AND SWRN GA.  LATER THIS EVENING...IT WILL
   BECOME NECESSARY TO REISSUE/REORIENT TORNADO WATCH 825 THAT EXPIRES
   AT 0700 UTC.
   
   ..RACY.. 09/16/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   30348824 32598822 31928400 29688395 
   
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