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Mesoscale Discussion 2228
MD 2228 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2228
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1042 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...CNTRL/UPSTATE SC...SWRN NC...EXTREME NRN
   FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 831...
   
   VALID 170342Z - 170545Z
   
   THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR BRIEF TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
   MORNING WILL EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NERN GA AND UPSTATE SC.  A LOWER
   THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE SWD ACROSS ERN GA INTO
   EXTREME NRN FL.  TORNADO WATCH 831 CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z.
   
   RADAR PLACES CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN OVER ERN BLOUNT COUNTY AL
   MOVING SLOWLY NNEWD.  WARM SECTOR AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-MID
   70S DEW POINTS HAS ADVECTED NWWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  THIS
   HAS MAINTAINED WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION...MAINTAINING A TSTM
   THREAT.
   
   PERSISTENT SPIRAL BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD...ARCING FROM
   UPSTATE SC SWD TO ERN PNHDL OF FL.  THE GREATEST DEGREE OF BACKING
   TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 831...
   PARTICULARLY VCNTY KAND.  VWP FROM GREER SHOWS GREATER THAN 35 KTS
   OF 0-1KM SHEAR.  SO...EVEN THOUGH CELLS HAVE BECOME MUCH LESS
   DISCRETE THAN EARLIER IN THE EVENING...EMBEDDED BRIEF TORNADOES MAY
   STILL OCCUR OVER EXTREME NERN GA AND UPSTATE SC...PARTICULARLY AS
   THE WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWWD.
   
   THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WEAKENS FARTHER W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF GA AND
   S INTO NRN FL. HOWEVER...GIVEN VWP DERIVED 0-1KM SRH OF  BETTER
   THAN 150 M2/S2...VERY BRIEF AND ISOLD TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE BAND OF TSTMS ROTATES NEWD
   TOWARD WAYCROSS AND VIDALIA.
   
   ..RACY.. 09/17/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...CHS...JAX...TAE...
   
   32848345 34918340 35498060 33368058 
   
   29948365 31588286 32848261 33098167 32188150 30338217
   29808234 
   
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