MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2230
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0826 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE SC...CNTRL AND ERN NC INTO SRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 171326Z - 171530Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION ACROSS
   PARTS OF NE SC...CNTRL INTO SERN NC THROUGH S CNTRL VA. A TORNADO
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED 14Z.
   
   THIS MORNING THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WERE OVER THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS MOVING SLOWLY NEWD. E OF THE CENTER...STORMS CONTINUE
   DEVELOPING WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BANDS FROM SC THROUGH PARTS
   OF CNTRL NC AND INTO SW VA. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BAND IS
   DEVELOPING FROM W CNTRL NC INTO N CNTRL SC ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE
   A ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF A PRONOUNCED
   MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY INTRUSION. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE FROM THE
   HIGH THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF STREAM AND LATEST
   SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. THE 12Z
   GREENSBORO RAOB SHOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
   WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MLCAPE FROM
   1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG IN THIS
   REGION WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR TO 30 KT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR TO 40 KT. STORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH
   INCREASING THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 09/17/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
   
   35368025 36598055 37497943 37167796 34717833 33817982