MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2285
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0450 PM CDT FRI OCT 01 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 012150Z - 012315Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST
   WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SHACKELFORD COUNTY
   ENEWD INTO PARKER AND WISE COUNTIES. DESPITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES OF 5.5 - 6.5 C/KM....TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COUPLED WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES OF
   1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT MAJORITY
   OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS SHIFTED WELL NE OF
   AREA...SUGGESTING THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG MESO AND STORM-SCALE
   BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
   
   VERTICAL WIND PROFILES FROM ABILENE AND FT. WORTH INDICATE WEAK AND
   VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS IN THE MID-LEVELS.
   THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING
   SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THAT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 10/01/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
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