MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2316
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MD THROUGH NRN VA AND SERN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 162017Z - 162215Z
   
   ISOLATED SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
   STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN VA THROUGH NRN MD AND EXTREME SERN PA.
   ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   SURFACE HEATING AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN LEFT EXIT REGION
   OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE
   RATES AND MLCAPE AROUND 300 J/KG FROM NRN VA THROUGH MD AND INTO SE
   PA. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS
   ZONE OF ASCENT NEXT FEW HOURS. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT IS
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
   CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED MINI SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MD.
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE
   RATES WILL PROMOTE THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
   STRONGER ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS LIMITED BY WEAK
   INSTABILITY. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER COOLS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 10/16/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
   
   39727611 38477608 38037762 38467815 39907685