MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2393
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0654 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX...SMALL PART OF
   SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 020054Z - 020330Z
   
   TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER SPS/MWL AREAS THEN SSWWD
   ACROSS PORTIONS TX HILL COUNTRY.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL BE LARGE HAIL...OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. 
   LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS I-35 CORRIDOR NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS.
   
   TSTMS ARE FORMING AS ERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT -- DPVA
   AHEAD OF ELP-AREA MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- IMPINGES UPON SFC WARM
   SECTOR.  AIR MASS HAS BEEN MODIFIED BY PRIOR FROPA AND ASSOCIATED
   CONVECTION BUT STILL CONTAINS SUFFICIENT THETAE TO SUPPORT
   TSTMS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F.  FWD RAOB APPEARS TO BE
   JUST E OF COOLING ALOFT...HOWEVER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS JUST W-SW
   OF THERE SHOW 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS BUT 80-90
   KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ENHANCED BY 70-80 KT 500 MB
   SPEED MAX-- WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL. 
   ALTHOUGH DRT RAOB CONTAINED APPARENTLY SPURIOUS SUPERADIABATIC LAYER
   BETWEEN ABOUT 830-930 MB...ADJUSTMENT STILL INDICATES THAT LEADING
   EDGE OF STRONGEST COOLING ALOFT HAS REACHED THAT FAR SE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/02/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
   
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