MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2398
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 AM CST WED NOV 03 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA THROUGH SERN MS AND EXTREME SW AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 030940Z - 031145Z
   
   A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
   BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO EXISTS FROM SERN LA THROUGH SERN MS INTO SWRN
   AL THIS MORNING. THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A WW.
   
   REMNANT OUTFLOW/COASTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INLAND AND EXTENDS FROM A
   WEAK SURFACE LOW IN SRN LA EWD INTO THE MS AND AL BOOT HEELS. A COLD
   FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE NW GULF. A LINE OF STORMS
   PERSISTS E OF THE FRONT WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE WARM
   CONVEYOR BELT. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COASTAL BOUNDARY
   AND LIFTING NWD OVER THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. S OF THE COASTAL
   BOUNDARY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE SUPPORTING
   MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT WITH MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   
   
   BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR (25 TO 30 KT) WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE
   COASTAL FRONT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS SHEAR IS WITHIN THE STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
   TORNADO POTENTIAL AS STORMS CROSS THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...
   MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST WITH THE
   LINE AS IT CONTINUES EAST AT 25 TO 30 KT. RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION OF
   THE LINE...PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND
   STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE OVERALL THREAT IS LIMITED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/03/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
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