MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2407
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 AM CST WED NOV 17 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 170711Z - 170845Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
   ASSOCIATION CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST.
   
   AS OF 0700Z...CORPUS CHRISTI RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT LINE OF
   TSTMS FROM WRN GOLIAD SWD INTO NUECES COUNTY. OVERALL LINE MOVEMENT
   IS EWD AT AROUND 10 KTS WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS ARE MOVING NNEWD AT
   AROUND 20 KTS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS
   OCCURRING S OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM THE TX COAST /W OF
   THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER/ WWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HILL
   COUNTRY. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE MOIST
   /I.E. DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70 F/ WHICH IS MAINTAINING MLCAPES OF
   1000-1500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WHILE LOCAL
   VWPS INDICATE LARGELY SLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE DEPTH OF
   THE TROPOSPHERE...ELY COMPONENT OF SURFACE WINDS IS RESULTING IN 0-1
   KM SRH VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2. GIVEN THE MODEST
   INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
   A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST FROM ALI/CRP EWD TO VCT/PSX. 
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS THREAT REMAINS LOCALIZED AND MARGINAL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 11/17/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   28679785 28949736 28869670 28299636 27739681 27179731
   27209763 27539810