MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2421
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1049 AM CST MON NOV 22 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SWRN
   LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 221649Z - 221845Z
   
   16Z SURFACE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM/COASTAL FRONT BECOMING
   WELL DEFINED FROM CENTRAL LA SWWD INTO NRN PART OF HOU AREA AND THEN
   WWD ROUGHLY ALONG I-10 TO NEAR SAT.  LOW CENTER NEAR COT WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG TRIPLE POINT OF WARM FRONT AND N-S ORIENTED
   STALLED FRONT EXTENDING INTO NERN TX/WRN AR.  WARM SECTOR REMAINS
   VERY MOIST AND WILL UNDERGO FURTHER HEATING WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS
   EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY.
   
   SUPERCELL HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER NRN PORTIONS OF HOU DURING THE
   PAST HOUR...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT EVIDENT ON VWP FROM KHGX.
   GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY AND DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...TORNADO
   THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS CELL.
   
   WEAKENING CIN AND INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
   RANGE SUGGEST FURTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN WW
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  SHEAR IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS...WITH TORNADO THREAT INCREASED NEAR THE FRONT.  SHOULD A
   STORM DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR NEAR VCT...STRONGER SLY LOW LEVEL
   WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
   
   ..EVANS.. 11/22/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
   
   28879530 28389800 28669910 29379892 29919717 30789386
   30679296 29779336