MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2434
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1138 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MID/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN...EXTREME
   E-CENTRAL TX...CENTRAL/WRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 884...
   
   VALID 231738Z - 231945Z
   
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND RELATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE ACROSS WW AREA AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
   SFC-BASED BUOYANCY EACH STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
   
   SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM LOW NEAR AUS NEWD TOWARD ANDERSON
   COUNTY TX...SEWD TO LFK AREA...THEN GENERALLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL LA
   NEAR ESF.  MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG ARE COMMON S OF WARM FRONT AND
   AWAY FROM CONVECTION...AND THIS AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS DIABATIC HEATING FURTHER WEAKENS CAP.  ANY
   SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR AND INTERACTING WITH THIS FRONT
   WILL POSE TORNADO POTENTIAL IN ENVIRONMENT OF LOCALLY ENHANCED 0-1
   KM SHEAR.  SRH 100-150 J/KG NOTED IN THAT LAYER AT PALESTINE
   PROFILER...AND HODOGRAPH WEAKNESSES EVIDENT ABOVE 1 KM ATTM SHOULD
   BE REMOVED AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL
   TX...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILES.  SOME TORNADO
   THREAT ALSO WILL CONTINUE S OF WARM FRONT -- AS EVIDENT IN
   PERSISTENT GULF SUPERCELL THAT WAS MOVING ONSHORE PORTIONS
   GALVESTON/CHAMBERS COUNTIES AS OF 1730Z...IN ENVIRONMENT OF
   RELATIVELY LOW LCL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
   
   28139775 32049460 32059160 28149475