MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2438
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0217 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR...EXTREME NWRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 232017Z - 232115Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN HEADER
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR WITH
   LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY THREAT.  POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS
   INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO.  FOR SITUATION IN
   AREAS NEAR LA BORDER AND SWD...WHERE REPLACEMENT WW IS IMMINENT FOR
   883/884...REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2437.
   
   ETA/RUC MODELS EACH APPEAR TOO WEAK WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM
   THIS REGION SWD BASED ON COMPARISON WITH 18Z SHV RAOB. MODIFIED
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
   OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER WRN AR...ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST/WARM ADVECTION
   ABOVE SFC.  SFC WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER E-CENTRAL TX -- WILL
   LIFT NWD INTO AR/LA BORDER REGION AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS
   CENTRAL/NERN TX.  AS THIS OCCURS NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER BECOMES
   INCREASINGLY SHALLOW..ESPECIALLY S OF I-40...BRINGING AT LEAST
   MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS TO PENETRATE TO SFC. 
   DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS
   WITH 40-50 KT SHEAR THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM OF BUOYANT LAYER.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...
   
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