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Mesoscale Discussion 2516
MD 2516 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2516
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0658 AM CST TUE DEC 07 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 915...
   
   VALID 071258Z - 071400Z
   
   TSTMS HAVE WEAKENED SINCE 11Z ACROSS NRN AL PER RADAR
   REFLECTIVITY...CLOUD TOP WARMING AND DECREASE IN LIGHTNING STRIKE
   DENSITY.  THE WEAKENING TREND IS PROBABLY DUE TO TSTMS MOVING INTO
   THE LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS SITUATED ACROSS NERN AL.
   
   MEANWHILE...THE 12Z BIRMINGHAM SOUNDING IS MOST LIKELY SITUATED
   ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED OVER
   CNTRL/SRN AL.  IT SAMPLED A 500 J/KG MUCAPE AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN
   TRYING TO INTENSIFY AGAIN JUST NW OF KBHM.
   
   IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO OR
   DAMAGING WIND GUST IN ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE WW...OR IN A
   TRIANGLE FROM KBHM-SELMA-CLANTON.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS
   SUPPORTIVE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE.  WITH TIME...THE
   LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM PASSES WELL
   NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE SEVERE RISKS SHOULD DIMINISH...
   ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE GA BORDER.
   
   ..RACY.. 12/07/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...
   
   32368794 34918646 34918571 32348712 
   
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