MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2516
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST TUE DEC 07 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 915...
VALID 071258Z - 071400Z
TSTMS HAVE WEAKENED SINCE 11Z ACROSS NRN AL PER RADAR
REFLECTIVITY...CLOUD TOP WARMING AND DECREASE IN LIGHTNING STRIKE
DENSITY. THE WEAKENING TREND IS PROBABLY DUE TO TSTMS MOVING INTO
THE LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS SITUATED ACROSS NERN AL.
MEANWHILE...THE 12Z BIRMINGHAM SOUNDING IS MOST LIKELY SITUATED
ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED OVER
CNTRL/SRN AL. IT SAMPLED A 500 J/KG MUCAPE AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO INTENSIFY AGAIN JUST NW OF KBHM.
IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST IN ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE WW...OR IN A
TRIANGLE FROM KBHM-SELMA-CLANTON. THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS
SUPPORTIVE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE. WITH TIME...THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM PASSES WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE SEVERE RISKS SHOULD DIMINISH...
ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE GA BORDER.
..RACY.. 12/07/2004
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...
32368794 34918646 34918571 32348712
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