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Mesoscale Discussion 2029
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1055 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL KS...SWRN THROUGH E-CENTRAL
   NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 191555Z - 191800Z
   
   GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THIS REGION MAY WARRANT WW
   WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH INITIAL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL.
   
   VIS IMAGERY AND 15Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD/QUASISTATIONARY
   BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL MO WWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NWRN
   KS...CENTERED NEAR I-70...WITH WEAK MESOLOW BETWEEN SLN-CNK. 
   ELEVATED TSTM COMPLEX BUILDING ACROSS NRN KS -- OVER WRN PORTION OF
   THAT BOUNDARY -- WILL MOVE NEWD AND AFFECT KS/NEB BORDER REGION
   BETWEEN MCK-CNK THROUGH 18Z.  OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF
   SFC-850 MB FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM SERN SD SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN
   NEB.  CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS FCST TO SHIFT ENEWD FROM BOTH REGIONS
   ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME MERGING
   POSSIBLE.  MAIN THREAT BEFORE ABOUT 18Z WILL BE OCCASIONAL LARGE
   HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN RATES LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR.  THEREAFTER -- AS
   ANY CONVECTION REMAINING OVER REGION INGESTS MORE WELL-MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND BECOMES MORE SFC-BASED -- DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL.
   
   MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ROUGHLY 8 DEG C/KM MEAN
   LAPSE RATES IN 700-500 MB LAYER AND ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG
   ATTM.  PRECONVECTIVE/PREFRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS
   AND CENTRAL/SERN NEB WILL BECOME FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR SFC BASED
   TSTMS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.  STRONG SFC HEATING AWAY FROM
   CLOUDS/PRECIP...70S F DEW POINTS AND 7-8 DEG C MEAN LAPSE RATES IN
   700-500 MB LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES RISING ABOVE 2000 J/KG. 
   LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK FLOW...THOUGH
   DEEP-LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEARS OF 40-50 KT ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH
   MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
   
   38379868 39049978 39490029 39930091 40330065 41289897
   41729818 41779743 41539658 41029599 40569573 40039573
   39079618 38239723 38239830 
   
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