MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0432 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 121032Z - 121200Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   10Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO WITH AN
   ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NRN OK INTO NRN AR. 
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND PRESSURES OVER
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IS RESULTING IN THE BACKING AND
   INTENSIFICATION OF NOCTURNAL LLJ FROM OK INTO CNTRL AND WRN KS. 
   THIS PROCESS IS EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING THE TRANSPORT OF A MOIST
   LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. AROUND 850 MB/ BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM.  THIS DESTABILIZATION /CURRENTLY THE
   STRONGEST OVER S-CNTRL AND SERN KS WHERE MUCAPES ARE INCREASING TO
   1000-1500 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN KS
   THIS MORNING.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE COOLING CLOUD TOPS
   AND AN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL
   KS...AND LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC AND GFS SUGGEST
   ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
   THROUGH 12Z.  GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS
   WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
   
   37049790 37629848 38269868 39199804 39519687 39149551
   37939472 37289488 36989618