MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1964
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0433 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF TX AND OK PANHANDLES...NWRN OK AND
   S-CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 152133Z - 152330Z
   
   A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS EXISTS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON ALONG A DRY LINE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ATTM WILL TEND TO MITIGATE 
   DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER 00Z. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
   WW.
   
   CU DEVELOPMENT HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ALONG A DRY
   LINE FROM NEAR GCK TO 50 W LBB. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED AS
   WELL...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS
   IN THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
   ROTATE AWAY FROM THIS REGION ACROSS NRN KS INTO SRN SD. IMPLIED
   DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE...AS NOTED IN RUC FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS...WILL TEND TO DETER VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH THROUGH
   ENTRAINMENT PROCESSES. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE NEAR THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION SHOULD MOVE EWD APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER 00Z.
   THIS MAY HELP INDUCE LOW-LEVEL BACKING OF WINDS E OF THE DRYLINE
   THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT. FAVORABLE CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...IF A STORM CAN INDEED DEVELOP.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   34650207 36180115 37450046 37960017 38079909 37799831
   36599866 35629938 34430052 33530138 33620260