MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...THE MID MS VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH AND SRN
   LOW PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 786...787...788...
   
   VALID 222000Z - 222130Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS REGION THROUGH
   THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  AN ENHANCED THREAT OF POTENTIALLY
   SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MO INTO NRN AR...FAR
   WRN TN AND PERHAPS FAR ERN OK.
   
   AS OF 1945Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS
   OVER FRANKLIN...CRAWFORD...WASHINGTON...IRON AND REYNOLDS COUNTIES
   MO NEAR AND JUST TO THE NE OF WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM N OF
   SGF TO JUST N OF POF INTO NWRN TN /N OF DYR/.  ANOTHER INTENSE STORM
   CLUSTER /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ WAS LOCATED OVER FULTON...IZARD
   AND STONE COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL AR.
   
   MODIFICATION OF EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM LIT AND SGF
   INDICATES THAT AIR MASS ACROSS SRN MO...AR INTO ERN OK HAS BECOME
   MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. 
   ACCOMPANYING WIND PROFILES INDICATED LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH 45-60 KTS
   OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2.  THIS LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR IS LIKELY LARGER INVOF WARM FRONT OVER SRN MO WHERE 0-1 KM SRH
   LIKELY EXCEEDS 250-300 M2/S2.  DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY
   APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THIS COMBINATION OF
   SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES.  THIS THREAT IS GREATEST
   ACROSS NRN AR INTO SRN MO.
   
   EXPECT OTHER STORMS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING OVER NWRN AR INTO SWRN MO
   TO EVOLVE SIMILARLY...WITH ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
   FROM NEAR LIT NEWD TO NEAR DYR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...
   
   35239632 37299536 38449331 39069296 40359172 40468805
   37478829 35708879 34358908 33639027 33549152 33769404
   33689611