MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0732 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...EXTREME NWRN AR AND SCNTRL/SWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 787...
   
   VALID 230032Z - 230200Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH 787 HAS AN EXPIRATION OF 02Z.  AN ADDITIONAL WW IS
   LIKELY...PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED ACROSS ERN OK...WRN AR AND PERHAPS
   EXTREME SRN MO.
   
   NRN END OF THE DRYLINE HAS MOVED EWD AND WAS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MO
   SWWD TO NEAR KSGF THEN INTO NERN OK.  LOW-LEVEL MSTR WAS BEGINNING
   TO SURGE BACK NWWD ACROSS SERN OK AND NCNTRL TX IN RESPONSE TO LARGE
   SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.  
   
   RECENTLY...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR E OF THE DRYLINE
   FROM ATOKA SWWD INTO BRYAN COUNTIES IN OK WHERE CINH HAS WEAKENED. 
   LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
   ACCELERATE...THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL EXPAND NEWD INTO NWRN/WCNTRL
   AR THROUGH MID-EVENING.  THIS REGION IS SITUATED ALONG THE SRN
   PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT BEGINS TO INCREASE LATER
   THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING A SUPERCELL THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THROUGH
   MID-EVENING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STORMS BECOME
   SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. 
   
   FARTHER N...IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR ON POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
   TSTMS ACROSS SCNTRL/SWRN MO.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT
   INHIBITION WAS INCREASING OVER THESE AREAS...BUT ELEVATED TSTMS WILL
   CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER.  LARGE
   HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
   
   ..RACY.. 09/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...
   
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