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Mesoscale Discussion 2084
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2084
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 PM CDT FRI OCT 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AZ...ERN NV AND CNTRL/SRN UT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 815...
   
   VALID 062147Z - 062315Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
   WW 815 AREA...NAMELY NRN AZ AND SRN UT.  OTHER ISOLATED...SEVERE
   STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL EXIST
   ACROSS SRN INTO E-CNTRL NV.  NO ADDITIONAL WW IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY WITH PRIMARY
   BAND OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT EXTENDING FROM NWRN AZ INTO WRN UT/ERN NV.
   CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITHIN THIS BAND HAS LIMITED LAPSE RATES AND
   RESULTANT INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. FARTHER TO
   THE S...STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING HAS OCCURRED...BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH LESS MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS ARE
   RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF PACIFIC COLD
   FRONT PER 20Z PHX SOUNDING.
   
   THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE EVENING WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF FORCING AS IT LIFTS NEWD
   ACROSS N-CNTRL AZ AND S-CNTRL UT.
   
   OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED IN LEFT EXIT
   REGION OF CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS OVER SRN
   NV...NEAR SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE.  HERE STRONGER
   HEATING AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   RELATIVELY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF AROUND
   1000 J/KG.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THIS THREAT LIKELY REMAINING CONFINED
   TO LINCOLN AND CLARK COUNTIES. GIVEN THIS LIMITED AREAL THREAT...NO
   ADDITIONAL WW IS ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 10/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN...
   
   32331333 34061427 36281557 37741633 39671650 40361489
   40581179 40440938 38430839 36400898 34030935 32710956
   31921101 
   
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