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Mesoscale Discussion 28 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CST SAT JAN 06 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN NH...SRN/WRN MAINE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 062043Z - 062145Z
SEVERAL SHORT LINES OF CONVECTION -- WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS --
MAY PRODUCE GUSTS NEAR SVR LIMITS WITH MINOR DAMAGE. SVR THREAT
APPEARS TOO MRGL AND SHORT-LIVED FOR WW.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING EWD FROM VT INTO NH...EXPECTED
TO MOVE EWD APPROXIMATELY 30 KT INTO WRN MAINE DURING NEXT 2 HOURS.
SHORT/NARROW BANDS OF TSTMS -- INCLUDING ONE WHICH PRODUCED GUST TO
37 KT AROUND 19Z AT BTV -- WILL MOVE THROUGH RELATIVE MAX OF LOW
LEVEL TEMPS AND MOISTURE. SFC THETAE AXIS IS EVIDENT ALONG A LINE
FROM ORH...LEW...45 NNW AUG. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
BUOYANCY MAY EXTEND INTO LOWER LIMITS OF FAVORED THERMAL LAYERS FOR
LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...AND A FEW CG STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED OVER
PORTIONS NRN VT/NH. POCKETS OF SBCAPES UP TO ABOUT 300 J/KG ARE
EVIDENT INVOF THETAE AXIS AND WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL CONVECTION
MOVES INTO CENTRAL/ERN MAINE...WHERE MARINE AIR WEAKENS SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY. MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC --
E.G. 50-70 KT AT 2-3 KM AGL -- MAY BE TRANSPORTED TO SFC IN MOST
VIGOROUS DOWNDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY ON W FACING SLOPES OF HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
..EDWARDS.. 01/06/2007
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...
42927184 43857129 44817085 45167040 44356955 43866996
43657031 43257056 42927081
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