MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0619 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 140019Z - 140415Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SRN MO EARLY THIS
   EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR FROM SGF TO THE SRN STL
   METRO AREA. PRECIPITATION RATES AROUND .05 IN/HR CAN BE
   EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED RATES IN EXCESS OF .10 IN/HR OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN WILL
   GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z.
   
   THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
   PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EXTREME NWRN AR...SRN MO AND WRN IL. AS OF
   14/00Z...IT EXTENDED FROM AROUND 20 NW OF FYV TO 20 N UNO TO ALN. A
   LARGE AREA OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING EWD ACROSS
   SWRN MO/FAR NWRN AR /PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/. THIS ACTIVITY IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS PROGRESSION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO
   THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGION RUNNING FROM THE TX COASTAL BEND
   TOWARDS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. 13/21Z RUC AND 13/18Z NAM MODEL
   GUIDANCE INDICATE 700-500 MB MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL ENSUE BEHIND THIS
   LAST SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION...EVIDENCED BY THE 14/00Z OUN
   OBSERVED SOUNDING. IN ADDITION...AS THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT
   LAKES UPPER-LEVEL JET QUICKLY MOVES EWD THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE
   RIGHT-ENTRANCE DIVERGENCE PRESENTLY ACROSS THE MCD AREA WILL SHIFT
   EWD AS WELL. THUS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL
   DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 01/14/2007
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
   FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
   
   37289161 36999256 36869304 36789333 36779366 36969385
   37349387 37699382 37869341 38149258 38469156 38689053
   38299034 37809070