MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0725 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NY...MA AND FAR SRN VT/NH
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 141325Z - 141730Z
   
   EPISODES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS
   MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NY EWD INTO FAR SRN VT/NH AND MA.
   HRLY ACCUMULATIONS RATES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN 0.05 INCH.
   
   
   ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS INCREASING OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND FAR WRN
   NY IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION IN THE
   RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET OVER SRN QUEBEC. SFC ANALYSIS
   SHOWED THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR JHW TO 40 N POU TO ORH.
   NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE MAY OCCUR AS WAA INCREASES ...BUT GIVEN
   THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE AREA...THE OVERALL
   MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING ISOTHERM SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE
   MORNING. THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING INDICATED THE DEPTH OF THE ABOVE
   FREEZING ELEVATED WARM LAYER IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN
   OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NY. STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ON THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
   CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF PRECIP...WITH HRLY LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS RATES
   UP TO 0.10 IN. WITHIN THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...SLEET MAY MIX WITH
   THE FREEZING RAIN. MORE STEADY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP OUT OF MI INTO SWRN/CENTRAL NY BETWEEN 15-17Z AHEAD OF THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES AT
   THAT TIME.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/14/2007
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
   FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
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