MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1031 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL KS/S CENTRAL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 240431Z - 240630Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING NWD ACROSS N
   CENTRAL KS INTO S CENTRAL AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WW POSSIBLE.
   
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNEWD OUT OF TORNADO WATCH
   28...MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SRN NEB.  THOUGH INSTABILITY GENERALLY
   DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT...A NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
   EXTENDS NWD INTO S CENTRAL NEB...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW
   NEAR 50 DEGREES.  
   
   COMBINATION OF WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH NWD EXTENT AND THE
   LIKELIHOOD THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THIS AREA
   SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO
   HAIL.  HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND CONTINUED
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...A NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORM CAPABLE OF
   A DAMAGING GUST OR ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT --
   PARTICULARLY OVER N CENTRAL KS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 02/24/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD...
   
   41089939 41179778 39329754 39199823 39150107 40060053