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Mesoscale Discussion 221
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS INTO N-CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 36...
   
   VALID 010146Z - 010315Z
   
   ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
   LIKELY BETWEEN 02-03Z ALONG COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OCCLUSION OVER
   S-CNTRL KS INTO N-CNTRL OK.  CONTINUE TORNADO WATCH 36.
   
   01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD PASSED
   ICT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD TO S OF AVK.  MOSAIC
   RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRYLINE RETREATING NWWD...STRETCHING FROM W OF
   PNC TO 30 SSE OF END TO 10 W CHK AS OF 0026Z.  OCCLUSION OF THESE
   TWO BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM SUMNER/COWLEY COUNTIES IN
   S-CNTRL KS SWD INTO GRANT/GARFIELD/KAY/NOBLE COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL OK
   BETWEEN 02-03Z.  00Z OUN SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
   LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   /LOWEST MEAN MIXING RATIO OF AROUND 9 G PER KG/ WHICH WERE
   CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 500 J/KG AND A WEAK CAP AROUND 650 MB.
   
   EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND TO SOME DEGREE IR
   CHANNEL...INDICATE CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING/COOLING SPREADING NEWD
   THROUGH WRN KS...THE OK PNHDL AND THE NRN TX PNHDL...INDICATIVE OF A
   MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA/VORTICITY CENTER.  FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG OCCLUDING BOUNDARIES SUGGEST THAT THE INITIATION
   OF DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITHIN
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   PREFERRED MODE OF CONVECTION MAY TEND TOWARD MORE LINEAR ALONG
   FRONTAL ZONE...HOWEVER PRESENCE OF STRONG AMBIENT SHEAR WILL STILL
   SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS
   AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/01/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   36579738 37479718 37639704 37849686 37919659 37749640
   37099639 36709652 36429663 36329678 36299717 
   
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