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Mesoscale Discussion 240 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CST THU MAR 01 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL INTO WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST INDIANA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 45...
VALID 011848Z - 012045Z
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 45...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IL INTO WESTERN INDIANA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
IN WAKE OF EARLY DAY/DECAYING CONVECTION CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
WABASH RIVER AT 1845Z...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO STEADILY
MATURE AND DEVELOP SOUTHWARD IN AN ARC EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL...ROUGHLY FROM A PEORIA-TAYLORVILLE-SALEM
CORRIDOR...SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAPE GIRARDEAU MO AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL OCCLUSION
EXTENDING FROM THE STACKED CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN IA. WITH THE
OVERSPREADING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
NARROW CORRIDOR OF PRE-CONVECTION CLEARING/GRADUAL LOW LEVEL MOIST
INFLUX...ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE. AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IL INTO
WESTERN INDIANA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS...THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
PRIMARILY EXISTS WITH NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS /MOST LIKELY WITH
SOUTH EXTENT/ DEVELOPING ALONG THE ARCING FRONTAL OCCLUSION. WITHIN
THIS CORRIDOR...BACKED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS/HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT
IN THE LOW LEVELS...COUPLED WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 50S DEWPOINTS AND
CONCENTRATED LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY...WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOW
LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..GUYER.. 03/01/2007
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
40198924 40358853 40408720 40238631 39918604 38848618
37528654 37198727 37108849 37308909 38298926 39118930
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