MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0249
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 PM CST THU MAR 01 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NY
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 020153Z - 020600Z
   
   MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
   EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
   BY 06 UTC.
   
   PERSISTENT AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE
   TO SATURATE THE VERTICAL PROFILE OVER THE GREATER NY AREA THIS
   EVENING. RADAR TRENDS SHOW ECHOS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM BUF TO
   SYR...WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING.
   DRY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT PRECIPITATION...BUT
   AIR MASS SHOULD SATURATE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BETWEEN 04 AND 06
   UTC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S THROUGH
   MOST OF THE AREA...AND DIABATIC COOLING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
   REMAINING AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS LIKELY
   TO BECOME FREEZING RAIN AROUND 06 UTC...WITH RATES EXCEEDING 0.05"
   PER HOUR.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 03/02/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   43807627 43877581 43727513 43537385 43107357 42907355
   42647376 42557440 42537435 42567470 42747546 42797616
   42817697 42867766 42937833 42957898 43277905 43437812
   43297751 43277715 43417660 43577621